Americans Believe Crime Is At Its Highest Point Since 1993

Highlights

Americans are more likely to perceive crime in the U.S. as having increased than they have since 1993.

Fifty-one percent say that the issue of crime in the U.S. is “extremely” or “very” serious.

House Democrats are asking themselves one question after Tuesday’s election stunner: What the hell happened?

Fear of crime was a top national concern in 2018.

You can take on cops and advocate for progressive causes to your heart’s content, but it may cost you elections.

Article

Most of us writing about the justice system understand the politics of crime and cops. Based on polling data, we warned that attacks on policing would backfire.

This was supposed to be the year of massive Democratic gains. Democrats were predicting a complete denunciation of Trump and Republicans by increasing their lead in the House, recapturing the Senate, and dominating state races.

The Senate stayed in Republican hands (a special election in Georgia is coming), Republicans made gains in the House, there were Republican gains at the state level, there was a considerable Hispanic shift to Trump, and most of this happened at a huge funding disadvantage.

Support for Joe Biden reached a new low among Black men this year, according to the NBC News poll of early and election day voters, NBC News.

It’s clear that crime and police issues swayed voters and short of a razor-thin margin for Mr. Biden, there was a national repudiation of attacks on law enforcement along with increasing concern about crime, Police And Crime Issues.

“What The Hell Happened?”

House Democrats are asking themselves one question after Tuesday’s election stunner: What the hell happened?

In the House, bleary-eyed Democrats were still sorting out the wreckage when they awoke Wednesday with dozens of their members’ races still uncalled and not a single GOP incumbent ousted — an outcome that virtually no one in the party had predicted in a year in which Democrats were going on the offense deep in Trump country.

Even with tens of thousands of ballots still to be counted, shell-shocked Democratic lawmakers, strategists and aides privately began trying to pin the blame: The unreliable polls. The GOP’s law-and-order message amid a summer of unrest (emphasis added), Politico.

Perception of National Crime Increasing-Gallup (direct quotes)

Americans are more likely to perceive crime in the U.S. as having increased over the prior year (78%) than they have been at any point since 1993. Meanwhile, they are less likely to perceive more crime in their local area (38%) than at any point in Gallup’s trend since 2004.

The gap between Americans’ perceptions of more crime in their local area versus nationally is 40 percentage points — the highest Gallup has recorded in three decades of tracking both trends.

The percentage saying there is more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago is up 14 points from last year’s 64%, marking a year-over-year increase not found in Gallup’s trend on this measure since 2005.

Americans’ perceptions of increased crime in their local area is down slightly from the previous year. This measure has been on a general decline over the past decade. As in recent years, Americans are about as likely to say there is more crime in their area than there was a year ago (38%) as they are to say there is less crime (39%) — though historically, Americans have been more likely to say crime has increased in their area than to say it’s decreased.

These data are from Gallup’s annual Crime poll, conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 15, 2020.

Though Americans perceive greater levels of national crime, they do not see the crime problem as being any more serious than they have in the recent past.

Fifty-one percent say that the issue of crime in the U.S. is “extremely” or “very” serious — consistent with the 48% and 52% recorded in 2018 and 2019, respectively. The 10% saying that local crime is extremely or very serious is also within the range of those same years.

Source: Gallup

The Hill (another perspective of Gallup’s data-rearranged quotes)

Nearly 80 percent of Americans say that crime has increased over the past year, according to a Gallup poll released Friday.

The poll found that the increase in perceptions of crime was largely driven by Republican respondents, 83 percent of whom say crime has increased.

Meanwhile, 73 percent of Democrats polled said that crime had increased.

Meanwhile, only 38 percent of Americans said there is less crime in their local area than there was a year ago. In addition, 29 percent of respondents said they would be afraid to walk within their local area alone at night.

Source: The Hill

Previous Data On Fear Of Crime

After the riots and protests of 2020, a majority of Americans say they are concerned about rising crime in U.S. cities, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill. Seventy-seven percent of respondents say they are concerned that crime is rising in the nation’s cities, while 46 percent of respondents said they were concerned about rising crime in their own communities, The Hill.

Mass Shootings: In the wake of two August mass shootings that claimed the lives of 31 people in one weekend, Americans are more worried about themselves or a family member being the victim of a mass shooting than they were after two previous massacres. Currently, 48% of U.S. adults are “very” or “somewhat” worried, compared with 39% in 2017 after one gunman killed 58 people in Las Vegas and 38% in 2015 after a San Bernardino shooter left 14 dead, Gallup.

Worry About Crime: 75 percent of Americans worry about crime and violence (April 2019), Gallup.

Fear of crime was the top national concern in 2018. Per Gallup, 75 percent of Americans worry about crime and violence (down from 78 percent in March 2018), which was the same as health care, the top concern, Fear of Crime. Gallup asked those polled if they worried about topics a great deal or a fair amount. Crime was ranked the same as health care using a combined score.

Half of Americans believe crime is very or extremely serious. In 2018, just under half (49%) of Americans believe the problem of crime in the United States is very or extremely serious — a 10-percentage-point drop and the first time the number has been below 50% since 2005, Serious Crime Concerns.

Most Recent Violence Data-Which Holds More Importance?

Critics insist that violent crime is down per historical trends before 2015. Critics say that the increase in violence in 2020 is overblown.

Thus we have a fundamental question, which holds more importance, a 28 percent increase in all violent crime (including simple assaults) per the National Crime Survey (2015-2018), and the presumption that this applies to 2019 (no change in violent crime in 2019 when including simple assaults per BJS), a tripling of violent crime per Gallup, endless media reports of vastly increasing urban violence in 2020 after the lockdowns, a rise in homicides and aggravated assaults in 2019 per the Major Cities Chiefs Association, a considerable and recent rise in homicides, aggravated assaults and robberies after the lockdowns by the University of Missouri, and considerable increases in homicides and violence by COVID and Crime…

“or”

…data from the FBI documenting that overall crime was flat (decreased 0.4 percent) for the first six months of 2020 but with increases in aggravated assaults and homicides? Per the FBI, in 2018 there was a decrease in violence of 3.3 percent. It decreased again by 0.5 percent in 2019, Crime in America.

Conclusions

Handgun sales are going through the roof. People are leaving cities due to COVID and crime. Police officers are leaving the profession at the insistence of family members. Police recruitment is down by 63 percent.

Minneapolis may bring in officers from other jurisdictions to help the city’s police department as the city faces a wave of violent crime and an officer shortage, The Minneapolis Star Tribune.

Running on an anti-police platform seems like political suicide. It’s threatening to most voters. “Defunding” the police, however ambiguous, appears to have helped Republican candidates for the House of Representatives in New York, The New York Times.

It’s not as simple as it seems; there were issues where conservatives lost, especially in liberal states (i.e., California’s Proposition 20) and cities (i.e., a handful of prosecutors).

But in the final analysis, Americans are concerned about crime. Through endless articles, they know that tons of cops are leaving the job. Recruitment is down 63 percent.

There are reasons for the massive negative publicity directed towards law enforcement (i.e., illegal use of force incidents by a small number of officers). Every cop in America understands that we need to do better. Every cop understands the history of racial animosity. Equal treatment under the law is a must.

But according to public opinion polls, most Americans have great respect for police officers (one of the highest-rated organizations in the country), especially those who have direct interactions, Americans And Cops.

The moral of the story? You can take on cops and advocate for progressive causes to your heart’s content, but it may cost you elections.

House Majority Whip James Clyburn criticized calls to “defund the police” Sunday, saying that the phrase hurt Democratic congressional candidates and could potentially derail the Black Lives Matter movement, reports USA Today.

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